Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 11.541054 13.501819 15.651122 18.176096 21.055017 24.228901 27.986370
2024-10-20 8.286801 10.886513 14.029115 18.080388 23.134318 29.198443 36.989155
2024-10-27 6.286537 9.140102 12.893306 18.126224 25.157278 34.191327 46.575142
2024-11-03 5.351874 8.480243 12.896452 19.463915 28.833461 41.544766 59.876482
2024-11-10 4.542397 7.782112 12.655306 20.327312 31.858978 48.250609 72.929182
2024-11-17 3.894269 7.168558 12.386916 21.033545 34.644914 54.798757 86.293319
2024-11-24 3.206902 6.336469 11.613831 20.800064 35.911022 59.161397 96.779121
2024-12-01 2.572949 5.456050 10.596629 19.985459 36.098277 61.815078 104.812047
2024-12-08 2.096890 4.759739 9.767022 19.336181 36.419742 64.622766 113.214192
2024-12-15 1.811320 4.372593 9.424033 19.472894 38.044736 69.618297 125.444802
2024-12-22 1.525541 3.921912 8.881969 19.154036 38.802021 73.184696 135.538088
2024-12-29 1.410289 3.819747 9.008822 20.112847 41.949223 81.056395 153.422859
2025-01-05 1.237426 3.557787 8.785353 20.391452 43.932148 87.187028 169.027570
2025-01-12 1.078196 3.294341 8.519472 20.555140 45.726756 93.160107 184.878417
2025-01-19 0.941437 3.055421 8.267690 20.711928 47.519584 99.272763 201.439275
2025-01-26 0.905278 3.080276 8.632627 22.259970 52.288012 111.333873 229.738229
2025-02-02 0.839509 3.005691 8.744854 23.249488 55.981902 121.598017 255.348086
2025-02-09 0.770807 2.905503 8.776021 24.051653 59.346236 131.452050 280.803705
2025-02-16 0.663886 2.657868 8.383757 23.791422 60.362668 136.701992 297.711813
2025-02-23 0.548160 2.346347 7.761376 22.874729 59.806110 138.698583 308.342584
2025-03-02 0.457325 2.090972 7.244080 22.143269 59.580662 141.332862 320.377508
2025-03-09 0.406175 1.964418 7.075866 22.297542 61.441006 148.485295 342.013178
2025-03-16 0.348128 1.791816 6.735386 21.938100 62.023596 152.920535 358.300065